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Europe falls apart

May 17, 2011 11:41 am / 1 Comment on Europe falls apart

On May 9th many cellebrated mother’s day but it was also proclaimed “Day of Europe”. In some of the media the editorials were dedicated to the future of Europe, the need of its unity and the fragmentation that is seen everywhere. Again, I use the column of values to see what can be expected.

The true union of communities needs to be based on a higher purpose that unites the first basics of values namely strong individual identity, safety, equality and trust before one can get to the higher levels of collaboration. Whenever issues arise s.a. a credit crisis, African refugees, a terrorist attack, water shortages, social unrest, etc. it is the strength of the basics of column of values that keeps the union together. The stronger this basis is the better the venture can cope with the challenges.

The countries that form the European Community have indeed their individual identities, one stronger than the other. But the higher purpose to create the community was not ideological or humanitarian but purely economical. The bases of the shaping the community were:

  • a large home market
  • cost savings through reduced bureacracy
  • easy human traffic to financial growth areas
  • financial unification through a single currency
Since mainly economic parameters prevailed no attention was payed to value issues like safety, equality or trust. The union became a top level boardroom issue not a humanitarium one on the streets. The cultural difficulties that arise due to migrations in the open border structures show for that lack of sensitivety. In the political boardroom people were only seens as work force, not as human beings with a backpack full of cultural baggage.
Country identities are not just economies but also cultures, especially in Europe. Economic partner discussions can be contained within the confinement of the own country’s bouderies but the culture spreads throughout the unified territory. Country identities clashed within each other’s bouderies, one more than the other. We see this for instance with the Eastern European cultures invading Western Europe now. A Rumanian or Polish person is still a Rumanian or Polish person, also when visiting Holland or Paris or Italy in search for personal financial wealth.
The effects of such cultural migrations were not accounted for nor organized. They were simplified by telling people that to work in Holland you behave like the Dutch, to work in Paris you behave like the Parisiens. But it does not work like that at all. On street level the cultures clash and may even create totally new cultures.
Since there is no higher common purpose other than money, the new cultures that arise show important signs of aggression, greed, individualization, cultural subgrouping, criminality, etc. and very little true cooperation. One sees foreign communities protect their interest within the confinement of the receiving culture. The orginal local population experiences a deterioration of their living environment and perceived quality of life and starts to blame the newcomers in the street.
The European Union was established for economic reasons and when these are in crisis the union simply falls apart because its reasons for unity are not valid anymore. Economic security and growth was enough for politicians to accept social unrest in their territories but when this security disappeares the tolerance does too. Right now we see European countries already setting up the original bounderies again to control the flux of undesired people across the borders.
A lot of European people were against the rapid expansion of the Union through the incorporation of Eastern European countries. The Western population of Europe feared a strong immigration of poor people with a strong cultural difference. The policy makers simply were seeking growth no morality. They were blinded by the potential of the growth of China and thought that a sufficiently large counterblock would be needed tp remain present in the global human power picture. The same motivation had created the orginal E.U. to counter the strength of the USA.
But money does not provide any security at all. This we have seen now around the world. What does produce securities is the willingness of the population to shape a high level cooperative community based on a higher sustainable purpose through hard labor, emancipation and trust. When the union was formed these key elements were undermined creating a cultural basis for structural decline that grew day by day.
We now do not just face an economic crisis in Europe due to Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Iceland, Spain or Italy. We suffer a crisis of true values.
After identity in the column comes safety. One of the issues of Europe was to create a common border for community wide safety purposes. The Shengen treaty then opened up the borders within the union for free traffic of people and goods. The true motive for open borders was primarily the facilitation of movement of community members and goods within the economic context. From a recreational perspective the open borders were perceived as a great added value, even though the exitement of collecting stamps of the diversity of countries disappeared. The fact that one could travel from north to south an v.v. without being hindered by border officials and related traffic jams was perceived as a novel common good that did produce some united feeling of being European.
In the field of dynamic labor related migrations the enthousiasm was much less as it addressed directly the conservative, protective nature of individual cultural identities. Certain immigrating cultures were more likely to be accepted than others. The extremely fast opening of the community to Eastern European countries had the effect that western people rapidly started to feel less safe than before the opening. Agressive incidents and the massive influx of cheap labor from these countries provided a sense of insecurity for the locals.
The people of Eastern European countries prove hard workers agains very low wages but also people that have a different perception on rules, s.a. in traffic for instance.
An even larger sense of insecurity was caused by the massive immigration of people from outside the European Union, s.a. the Middle East and Northern Africa. Those immigrants were welcome to participate again in the cheap labor processes but brought with them their religion and local cultures and an overall lesser level of education than the locals. Subcultures appeared that became cultural and religious islands inside the main cultures. No integration, no higher common purpose, just little countries within countries with hardly any social interaction.
When you go visit a country on business or holiday you feel enthousiastic and curious about that foreign culture and the differences with your self. But when that same culture settles massively in your home street that feeling of exotic curiousity changes to a strange sense of insecurity.
Without security one needs not even mention the next levels of the column of values: equality or trust. These will never exist. On the contrary. One gets a sense of distrust, an “I” and “them” attitude that develops not only through individual behavior, communication and mentality but it eventually also conditions the evolution of the community itself, its regulation and culture. Even in the old boardroom that were happily interaction when dealing with money and growth the interaction on true moral issues claims the differences that cannot be overcome.
Now that the economic crisis affects Europe the sense of cohesion disappears. The column of values was never installed nor did anyone pay any attention to it, so all countries and cultures fall back now onto their own securities. Europe is breaking up, falling apart.
This is a pitty as so much more would have been achievable if the higher purpose to establish the union had originally not been of financial nature but built up along the lines of sustainable progress in which content was more important than growth. Maybe we find that common sense still in the chaos of the break up.

China will bring us back to basics

May 16, 2011 7:52 am / Leave a comment

This weekend James Vena posted a discussion on his LinkedIn group International Trade and Internet. He was refering to an article in Wall Street Journal on May 16th and announced the possibility of an important financial dip in Q3 of this year, a dip deeper that before.

The post did not come as a surprise to me nor the fact that shortages of raw materials would eventually bring the global speculative economies to a hold. In fact it was very simple to reach that conclusion. You simply have to apply the arithmatic that Dr Bartlett shows in his famous lecture posted on YouTube. If China has a steady anual economic growth of 9% and this extrapolates to a simmilar growth of consumption of raw materials, and doubling time of the exponential consumption is about 7 years of all these figures line up.

China’s growth started when western worlds had already dramatically and irresponsibly consumed their way through the Earth’s resources. Back in the early 70’s the Club of Rome already raised a flag to warn us that we could not continue our consumption rate as the Earth’s resources were limited.

Our global economies based on structural debt demanded growth and more growth to counter the evaporation of capital through interest. The consumer society was expanded world wide until the limits of today. We have reached the end of the line of the unsustainable global approach.

I myself announced that the big crash would occur somewhere before 2015. I still took one doubling time as a margin to fool myself in the hope to have time to contribute still with an alternative, Global Shift, that would be strong enough to become a global promise at the time the obsolete system collapsed. But the doubling time is indeed too far fetched and optimistic.

I never took the trouble to actually calculated the remaining Earth resources and plot them along the line of growing usage. Common sense learns us that the end of that line is nearby. How near has various variables, s.a. the growing pricing, the innovative push to reduce dependency, the reuse of materials that are already in circulation, the consumer reduction effect of crises, etc. But these would only delay the crash with months not with years or longer.

All the huge capital injections of governments were oriented to maintain the old system of consumption and allow for growth to continue without any consideration of its consequences on material consumption and its finite nature. Money is now made on speculation on shortages, keeping survival away and accessible only to the highest bidder. The power game of politicians may have postponed potential war situations but they were acting over the back of the global population without using their power to introduce a parallel system of sustainable progress. They are especially to be blamed for that. They have played the global game for the wealth of just a few and blocked out of individual greed and self interests the evolution of a new human organization based on true values but not money.

Money prevailed, not as a means for the large masses but as a goal for the greedy, supported by policy makers, politicians and executives of multinationals. Soon all the money they accumulated will be worth absolutely nothing, not even to buy a bread. Because to buy a bread someone will have to harvest the wheat, grind it, mix and bake the flour. Soon bread will be more valuable than all euros and dollars together. The true rich people are those who have grown used to be humbly self sufficient in food production, housing and clean drinking water. Back to universal basics will surely become the global issue in the next few months and years. China teaches us but are we willing to learn?

The end of the car

May 14, 2011 7:06 am / Leave a comment

For many this may be a strange and even absurd title. The car has become a part of our life that we cannot imagine eliminated. The car has become a culture on its own, a status symbol and key user item within our daily routines. Why then such provocative title as if the car would disappear? Let us look at some signs and common sense:

Signs:

  • The European Commission issued a paper in which the car is banned from any city environment by 2050.
  • 80% of our car use is for the short distance. If we live in the city and car use is banned we serious ask ourselves why we would need to possess one if just used for family visites, recreation and travel out of town?
  • A paper was issued annoucing plans to introduce CO2 tax on usage of vehicals. For many decades governments have enriched themselves on taxes over fuel and never bothered about CO2 until the global warming started to become an issue. Using tax money to pay for a larger infrastructure now they want to use our CO2 emissions to reduce their deficits. If at the same time they open up their policies for speeded introductions of vehicals on alternative energy forms this taxing may be stimulous for people to consider such car. But what would be next? A tax on fine dust emision of the tires?
  • In many large city the space burden of cars is tremendous. Not just a car that is in use and causes pollution, traffic jams and accidents, but also a stationed car that causes spacial problems when not in use, which is most of the time. Parking in those cities has gone up as much as 7 euros per hour, growing steadily to discourage car ownership.
  • In villages the luxory of a parking space in the street in front of the house is now seen by government as a service which can be charges as one uses public space that otherwise could be used for other activities, s.a. foodproduction or recreation ground for children en elderly people or space for CO2 reducing and water managing living green. Yearly tarrifs of 3000 euros and more have been seen already in certain municipalities. This, over an average life time of 5 years of a new car in a family, dubbles the cost of ownership.
  • Petrol has grown tremendously expensive over de last few years. At the end of the month the traffic jams reduce because people cannot use the car anymore until their next pay check arrives. They stay at home,use public transportation or use alternative facilities like car sharing, the bycicle, etc.
  • Less directly visible is the annual cost of pollution and green house effect in cities on human health. It is scientifically estimated that a government can save yearly up to 700 euros per inhabitant if they pay attention to air quality alone (http://www.aireas.com ).
  • Also less visible and measurable is the lack of human productivity due to time inefficiencies in private transportation, health issues due to stress and pollution and long term consequences of reduced family quality time on children due to long parental absence during the day.
  • The entire world economy is under pressure due to the intense speculation with money of banks, governments, multinationals, etc. The crises follow each other up rapidly each with a strong national but also potentially global character. It becomes more and more difficult to have and to keep a job while social securities, pensions and insurances are also under pressure due to mismanagement of funds. While our individual financial securities show a decreasing line the cost of our traditional life style is rocketing sky high with the end not yet in sight. More and more people are seriously looking at their quality of life all together and feel forced to start considering important modifications. The untouchable luxury of the car is slowly becoming touchable.
Common sense:
All these signs together are a wake up call for us as individuals to start considering our dependence on our car and look for alternatives before the cost of ownership of a vehicle exceeds our posibilities. Common sense says:
  • that using a vehicle with a weight of more than 1000 kg to transport a human body of 80 kg is a serious waste of energy in times that this becoming very scarce and expensive.
  • that the booming growth of vehicles in use in the world, from 150 million 40 years ago to 130 billion now, is bound to reach limits in every aspect of its existence if not modified along the way. As the car today in essence is the same as a car 100 years ago we see all kinds of difficulties appearing in usage of resources, space, etc.
  • for many decades the car has been a significant part of any nation’s economy through huge taxation on ownership and usage, as well as all the labor it produced in the manufacturing processes, services and expansion of infrastructures. This has caused these same governments to push for growth in the sector and become reluctant to stimulate innovations in this field.
  • changing the entire automotive panaroma requires a lot of time and effort now and this has not very much to do just with the car itself or all surrounding factors but with our own human mentality and culture around the ownership and availability of a vehicle. People are still willing to eat less or with reduced quality to maintain their luxus of a car that is not used 80% of the time.
  • no one abandons freely the car if this is not compensated with alternative ways for getting from A to B that are at least as easy and comfortable in use as the car. The investment to make alternatives available and the effects of such alternatives on our surroundings is tremendous. Right now many governments are reluctant to take one this transformation due to their economic dependence on the old complex mobility but soon they will have no choice. When that occurs a whole new perspective opens up for business and social innovation but not without a serious dip in economic stability of the region. Organic transformation to a new system in parallel with the reduction of the old system would have been the best choice but for that it seems too late. A compulsory transformation pushed by crises will be more likely to happen now. The sooner it occurs the better it will be for the individual and sustainable potential of the entire region.
So, if you ask me again: is the end of the car in sight? I would respond YES! At least the way we know automobility as it stands today. We are facing rapid and important changes in the near future. How long will it take? I can only guess. The complexity of variables is huge but a few parameters are key: when will the expected crisis of China occur that will again bring a global crisis? When will other financial based crises around the world (Greece, Portugal, food, water, etc) cause a new global crisis? When will we run out of oil?
I expect all this to happen within the next five to eight years max. So the transformation of our automotive world will come hand in hand with these crises. Ten years from now we will not use cars anymore as we do today.

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