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This mini analysis is based on the evolutionary situation in Holland (1945 – 2020) using the drawing of human and societal complexities. The law of opposites cause rhythmic changes in emphasis that have to do with our inner conflicts and awareness too:
- Fears versus Dreams
- Greed versus Moral justice
The changing energies between the To Be and To Do show a sinus wave over time with periods of 7,7 and 54 years in a life time. The way we deal with this is meaningful for progress.
The natural society rhythms are consequence of these opposites that have become the kernel of the diversity of life on Earth but also the learning battle that our human species fights with itself. Every cycle through chaos of our species is exponentially more intense that the ones before. With a global population now of 7 billion, three times the population when world war II ended, the fear for new violent encounters is as high as our dreams for sustainable progress. These two opposites interact in a powerful awareness struggle without precedence. The next few years will be decisive to answer the following:
- Will humankind enter in a destructive, self inflicted (and assisted by nature) chaos that exceeds every war ever before? The eternal battle between greed and moral awareness?
- Or will we overcome chaos permanently by introducing and accepting the law of opposites and learning how to deal with it for progression without chaos? The battle between fear and dreams, the quantum leap when awareness overcomes fear?
Cyclic evolution and awareness
Our understanding today of the cyclic nature of our behavior is enhanced by the mini analysis of the period between 1945 (end of WW II) and 2020 (new collapse) in the Netherlands (equivalent to the rest of the world in similar phases).
1945: When world war II ended in 1945 in the Netherlands, leadership was needed to co-create a stable society (co-create symbiosis). Leading in the argumentation was the destructive force of the war, the reasons behind its development and what could be done to avoid it? The conclusions were that we need to build social securities that moderate the natural potential of aggression of desperate people by giving them a minimum to survive, sufficient to avoid them to follow immoral impulses.
Note: 1945 – 1970 is a 3 x 7,7 year cycle.
1970: The creative social systems (pensions, social security, unemployment funds, etc) are now in place. The “State of social care” had become a fact and should stand model for lasting wellness and peaceful progress. At the same time fear arises in the 1970’s present and at the horizon for the cost of social care. The postwar reconstruction phase is behind us, labor from industrial processes evaporate due to the exodus to low wage regions and first demand on the securities system show inefficiencies. A management culture replaces the leadership culture. The discussion changes from “change for stability” into ” the need for financial growth and controls”.
Wellness and financial abundance had a positive effect on longevity. Economic growth became the keyword to sustain wellness. The taxable potential of circulating money was important with the foresight of increasing costs to sustain social security. The aging population, statistics on decrease of child birth and expected costs of health care and social securities, showed an unbalance in the future financial stability. Wanting to keep wellness as a norm cannot be seen as greed, the human psychology to sustain it can. We have the tendency of wanting more of the same. This produces the downfall along the axes of moral awareness. Not that we did not learn from the painful episodes in our history, we did. But they grow away from memory as new generation grow up in abundance and peace. Other emotional priorities take the overhand, such as apathy, reluctance, fear, greed, etc. People tend to think now of wellness as a human right and consider the system responsible for maintaining it. The management system develops a structure of hierarchy and power to introduce efficiencies and measures of control. Some important measures were:
- Reduction of the work week from 40 to 38 and 36 hours. This should spread the workload over more (taxable) salaries. Taxed labor was and is one of the mayor sources of income of the government.
- The liberation of money emission from its gold reserve collateral. This should boost the circulation of money, the second largest tax income through VAT development.
- The focus on value added logistics for goods distribution from low wage countries (China, India and Brasil) to the EU, due to our geographical location and trade expertise (a third key source of tax income).
Money became the goal, as a growing means to finance wellness. Tax became the most important instrument for the management of the country. People are slave to the system. “Care” and “Greed” developed into a dual economy of growth: the need for massive consumption of goods and the attention to the consequences of this over consumption, referred to as “wellness deceases”.
1995: The tension in the system builds up but awareness is at lowest level. Apathy, blindness and reluctance reigns. The economy still grows but by unnatural forces. The consequences of the 1970’s measures lead to a management culture of greed. Bankers took the lead, together with real estate brokers that speculate with shortages of houses. The influx of cheap labor for the supply chain focus increases the demand. The price evolution of a house had become the collateral for money circulation and debt creation. Stones, debt and speculation had become more important than the human being or its capacity to create productive communities. Economy of growth and tax had become dominant with impressive constructions of personal wealth development of heartless speculants. Government had itself tied up in an negative spiral of taxation needs that also captured the greed of state officials who could build personal security, hierarchy and income through the bureaucratic network. The exponential costs of society, that had been expected in 1970, did occur with the unexpected particular emphases on greed rather than need. The credit crisis in 2008 brought the immorality and system’s vulnerability to the daylight. The explosive amount of tensions around the world had not triggered awareness but the bank affairs did, especially that of fear. The instant counter measures were based on massive capital injections out of fear for total system collapse.
The management culture is kept in place by the hierarchical lobbies, legal criminality and fragmented overall money dependence. Everything seems to be done to swim against the stream of progress out of fear for chaos, collapse and loss of authority. This causes multiple tensions to build up further as social securities evaporate, pollution destroys our habitat, greed evolves further, morality is at its deepest point and the system cracks up despite capital injections and increased management through bureaucracy of controls and reluctance to change.
2008 is halfway between greed and fear when the credit crisis struck, showing the face of both. Instantly there was a wake up call. The management culture is dominant and seeks measures to sustain itself. Large capital injection, increased control systems and further focus on economic growth are measures of all the fragmented individual self interests that work together.
But 2008 also opened up room for the first initiatives in the field of leadership and change. A new leadership cycle breaks through. STIR Foundation is pioneer and started its co-creative platforms, inviting all those who panicked to join forces. A very first impulse was achieved to connect management of future growth with leadership of change. We achieved temporary progress and showed the way beyond chaos and even avoiding collapse. It was a precedent that collapsed again when management measures thought to have produced positive results. That is natural too. The green line of leadership is still fragile and unsupported. As stated in the previous blog there is only a small time frame when management and leadership can interact together. That is when the expectation of pain and collapse is big enough and a consensus can be reached on the fear eliminating dream (where value creation ends and money making begins).
2020: Even though we live now in 2014 the dot on the horizon does not go much further than 2020. We now stand on the edge of the total collapse that capitalist measures tried to avoid since 2009. From a management perspective, what has changed to date? Nothing! The greedy still benefit in their personal financial growth patterns while social securities evaporate. Leadership is emerging challenging greed, our financial slavery and the system that supports it. STIR is actively developing its precedents. Pope Francis is using very sharp words to condemn the system of growth and calls for responsibility. Leaders occupying management positions open up for co-creation.
Two cyclic battles
From the above we can distinguish two interwoven battles of human development:
- 1945 – 1995: The leadership battle for human wellness through co-creation
- 1970 – 2020: The management battle for sustained material greed through fragmented self interest
Since about 2000 (7 * 7.7 years since 1945) a new leadership battle emerges, this time around “sustainable human progress”. It does not support the management battle. New age 21st century leafership bases itselves on value creation rather than consumption. The law of opposites helps management towards collapse. 2008 was just the beginning. Towards 2020 more of it becomes visible, but can total collapse be avoided?
The 1970 versus 2020 battle
The real battle now is between the 1970 belief and system’s reality that “money solves it all” and the new 2000 leadership belief that “sustainable value is created together”. The latter is based on feeding our awareness with the need to transform the system’s complexity and performance. In history we see that collapse has never been avoided due to the powerful resistance of management forces. The biggest question is now: “Does history repeat itself? Or do we create a new episode and turning point in human history?
My personal choice and daily efforts are for the turning point through persistence, belief in my views of the human complexity and reassured by the precedents achieved so far with Sustainocracy. This can only expand and enhance itself throughout the world. Dream A (money solves it all) can only prosper with Dream B (co-creation through awareness) when they unite in value creation and expansion.
Nicolai Kondratieff (1892 – 1938) introduced a theory about cycles of 50 to 60 years in capitalist economics. The cycles show a sinusoidal shape that can be divided into four different “seasons”: prosperity, recession, depression and improvement.
Those of you who know my model of human complexities (see below) will also recognize the same four situations or states, named in a similar but different way and also following each other in a chronological way, despite human tendensy to counteract the flow in certain stages. Rather than showing a sinus timeline I show a cyclic movement that evolves into an evolutionary spiral (not drawn in this particular drawing that represents just a single cycle showing the phases we go through).
Using my own model I relate a number of human variables to the cyclic experience, as individuals and as communities. Each phase and change among them has much to do with the human psyche which would explain the linear fluctuations in time in both the Kondratieff and my (Close) model. We can also map generations on both models to see where they stood in relation to economic development or recessions and what emotional or cultural environment supported each phase. In the Kondrakieff sinus this is easily done against very specific chronological data. It is easy to plot also very specific events as points of reference, s.a. World War II for instance.
The points of reference help to relate the different models by synchronization in time and region. World War II got us (large parts of Europe) into a state of chaos for instance. It would be a “starting” point in my model due to the time reference that can also be further extended to a specific regional location. This you can read for Holland, Spain and the USA in chapter 11 of my ebook on the Global Shift (2011)
Then we could observe how generations evolve, one after the other, with the effects of the cycles of human complexities and the Kondratieff sinus of economic seasoning on them. In my model I show that people who grow up in a situation of wealth are being educated accordingly. This means that we are being educated with wealth as a matter of fact. I remember my own growing up phase in the midst of the post war culture of prosperity of the late 60’s early 70’s in Holland. We all wanted to be a millionair by the age of 30. What we were really doing was to create our own crises by mere cultural mentality caused by the environment in which we lived. Generations follow each other up every 20 to 25 years which would show another sinusoidial wave based on culture and mentality following Kondratieff in a different phase. We could probably draw the technological peaks with the mentality ones on the models, just to see how they influence each other.
In my model I do not relate necessarily to periods of 50 or 60 years for one cycle to complete as this may have to do with administrative economics rather than human (generational and environmental) complexities. I have even suggested that in prehistorical times a complete human complexities cycle could take hundreds or even thousands of years, affected more by natural environmental periods of abundance, interaction with hostile encounters or the chaos produced by natural disasters. When we look at the Chinese dynasties a direct link can be made with such cycles. Economics did not exist nor did therefor the Kondratieff sinus. My model did apply though.
Only now, the recent few hundred years we have found the cycles shorten to such an extend that we live through one or two complete cycles in an entire lifetime. My model hence relates to environmental circumstances (culture, war, periods of peace, nature, catastophes, crises, etc) as key influencial factors on human behavior and a historical clear reference with which we can relate human reaction and evolution both technologically and socially.
My model also introduces the line of sustainable human progress along which the traumatic human events can be plotted. This is new in any documentation. I use my transition phases (greed and enlightenment) while economists would only refer to entering and leaving the chaos quadrant as two seperate phases (bull and bear markets respectivily). The line of sustainable human progress is an evolutionary straight line that moves from chaos to wealth and beyond. The transition phases (greed gets us back into chaos and enlightenment gets us back to organized wealth) can also be seen in the sinus of Kondratieff.
Kondratieff shows an organic human logic in time phases with a build up of technological highlights and the economic effects. The same complex origin for progress can be found in the human complexities (psychology, education, culture) within the phase of chaos (war, depression) and enlightenment (the left hand side of my model). Humankind apparently needs stress to be inventive while in times of wealth and greed little to nothing new is added. Instead we see then an increase in risk avoidance, bureaucracy and hierarchies, which translates into a measureable increase in costs of society. This is also the reason of sudden collapse into a recession in cycles of about 7 years (domino effect).
- Year 1: market crisis (consumer crisis for whatever reason)
- Year 2: business crisis (expected turnover not reached)
- Year 3: government crisis (expected tax income not reached)
- Year 4: government dependent instances crisis (education, police, etc)
- Year 5: business downsized, fused, innovated, went broke..builds up again
- Year 6: government gets more tax income
- Year 7: government dependencies get more air
During those seven years all economic institutions go through reorganizations, eliminating bureaucracy and trying to open themselves up for innovation. Costs are eliminated and they are downsized, renewed their structures to get a positive impulse. The impulse gets everything into a new investment round that results in 7 perceived good years and then it starts falling back again. This would suggest that the traditional 7 bad years, 7 good years, 7 bad years, 7 good years could be expalined in a sinusoidal wave of 49 years. With economics we created an artificial environment that shows a more organized sinuswave than when interacting with the multidimensional complexity of nature and the chaotic tribal confrontations of the past.
Sometimes the economic years are stretched a bit after a capital injection, an overenthusiastic increase of national debt, etc. The figure we see returning all the time (“about 50 years” – equivalent to an ancient average generational lifetime) is just a logical reflection of our administrative economic organization of one natural year and our human “perception” of what we believe is good or bad. This would also suggest that if we would half the administrative year or extend it to two years we would see the waves shorten and lengthen respectively. This may be something for further study by someone even though natural seasons may still have some significance in our, otherwise highly automated artificial productivity.
It also has to do with our fragmented structure of society along a chain of economic dependencies. If we set up society differently (eg a Sustainocracy) then the economic world would never collapse. Sinusoidal waves would not exist because we eliminated the duality in our progress by concentrating on a single higher common purpose (sustainable human progress) with highly flexible, dynamically adaptive non fixed, hierarchical organizations. We unite our knowledgeable awareness with our adaptive productivity towards a permanent never ending goal.
What the Kondratieff model does not foresee is the piling up of an exponential curve within the current artificial sinusoidal. This is effect is caused in the last 40 years after the liberation of money for speculation around shortages by the entire, global institutional world. It coincides with the “information technology” era of the 5th Kondratieff wave, which is why it confuses the analysts. Taking also the limited Earth resources into account, the dip of the 5th Kondrakieff wave coincides with my crossing over from greed to chaos and a point of singularity of overall financial collapse.
The creditcrisis of 2008 has been just a warning signal. Banks will never recover despite the huge capital injections and government finances collapse all together. The Kondratieff’s winter and my model’s point of chaos are this time expected to be more dramatic then ever, making the Russian natural winter feel warm, and the Arab spring feel peaceful, compared to previous events. Some think that the solution lies in a new technological phase s.a. nano-technology. I personally believe that the next phase has nothing to do with technology or capitalist economics but awareness and a totally new type of society.
And that is where I come in with Sustainocracy. I cannot create a Kondratieff sinusoidal counter wave now to avoid a mayor crash, nor prevent local poverty from rising, or avoid a potential new world war. I can however introduce a new paradigm that can instantly transform current society, situated structurally in greed (recession) on the way to chaos (depression), into one positioned permanently in wealth (prosperity) by taking institutional responsibility today. This would maybe break or interrupt the sinus or introduce a new aspect that actually supports the sinus but from a different point of view. My own shortcut, interrupting the traditional ups and downs of society, has to do with our current state of collective understanding (awareness, consiousness).
We now collectively understand the above and the consequences of continuing. By introducing sustainocracy we now have a choice. We could trust the sinusoidal wave as an external matter of fact and realize that a new generation of prosperity is hopefully being born today to grow up and make it happen during the Konfratieff dip. We can also take responsibility and use what we know now to create a society based on new facts, a higher awareness, before it’s too late. Like building a Sustainocracy right now in ever city or region in the world.
How powerful will people remain when the collapse continues and the point of singularity makes the sinus wave the deepest ever? What interest can people have in total collapse? How powerful can these same people become when they assume sustainocratic responsibility and turn the ship with consiousness and planned wisdom before organic logic does it with brutal force? If you are in a position of power today just ask yourself that question.
It can be done through human ethical behavior, leadership and awareness. It is difficul but worth it. I am doing it with people around me who have fragmented authorities and power (government, business, science, civilians) and they use it with me in purpose driven social and technological innovation. We do not place money in the center of attention but sustainable human progress, a clear environmental and social balance in circular economics of value creation. By doing so we create a rapid change in mentality and see a period of many decades and even centuries in reformatting and organizing our civilization with a positive consequences for economies. That I call the second quantum leap of human kind. Not by chance but by willpower and awareness.
Sustainocratic transformation is a voluntary act of responsibility