Here is the forecast for 2012 based on the model of the human complexities (“The Global Shift, a quantum leap in human evolution“, chapter 2, 2011) and related to the four quadrants that occupy our world in transformation the coming decade.
1. The big splash
Most of our world economies are anchored in the unsustainable quadrant of greed. The credit crisis blew a big hole in the financial hot air balloon that was being filled up by governments, banks and business enterprises. The patchworks of capital injections don’t stop the system from collapsing simply because the collapse is part of a transformation and not a temporary recession. Many organizations and governments become aware of this but feel the burden of the old world still strongly present and are reluctant to take action, hoping for some miracle to happen still. Their professional mission is also to try to keep things going as it was against all odds.
The current world organization is historically fragmented into a network of geographic and business interests with money driven banks that are all linked up in a financial system. In such fragmented, money driven global society we see all the institutions take measures to save their own position, often at the expense of others. It seems all part of the game in which we see the worst of people dominate the scenes with tricks and manipulations to uphold old positions. Meanwhile the perspective of progress is lost out of sight. The consequences are that many institutions fail and crumble into sudden death due to lack of support, competitive strength, slow reaction time or total lack of sustainable basis.
Governments try to keep disaster away by injecting money they do not have, into old systems that do not solve anything anymore, just maybe increase the problem. And if no value is created there is nothing else to sustain the institutions than the injections that just delay their ending a bit more. More and more governments will go bankrupt or will try to slow down the inevitable by some measures (like economic reforms, raising taxes or whatever).
All banks have a large financial bubble that cannot be resolved so they only still remain in the picture because of the ties they have with in the form of debts that the public cannot and will not pay anymore forcing the banks into control of governments who placed trust in them with social security instruments. They fear loosing those too and with it the electoral support of their democratic backing. The outstanding loans of the banks have hardly any collateral anymore. They fall over further in 2012. More and more banks will not be able to comply with their obligations to the public that has its savings in it.
Businesses will try to go greener and greener, not just for marketing sake but also necessarily to compensate the competition for resources that outsizes the competition for sales. Products become more expensive in the markets of basic human needs. The green products do not stop the over- consumption that is still being stimulated by economies of growth, which eventually will create a further inflation due to a demand and growing shortages in deliveries. Prices rise and people cannot afford anymore their basic needs unless they get a higher personal debt which is unpayable already. The whole thing ends up in a big splash when all the global systems break their ties and focus on trying to do something about it locally.
As the world’s large systems collapse along the line of organization complexities they enter the fragmented world of chaos where the local criminality and confrontations between people and systems grow, demanding local solutions around public safety, cohesion and integrity. The chaos in financial markets will be very large but isolated from the general public unless the systems place unjust dictatorial demands on the public (claiming taxes, mortgage funds, outstanding debts, etc) that will cause the rise of the masses against the systems. The public itself will also have plenty to demand that the old systems cannot give anymore s.a. pensions, social securities, insurance, etc. which will also get groups of people to the barricades.
The greatest problem in a situation of chaos is that groups of people try to take benefit of others through criminal activities and acts for survival. At the same time many will try to find others to blame for the entire situation. This entire process in a multicultural environment of migration is highly unstable and volatile. It will be highly dependent on the type of leadership that develops on extremely local basis to either escalate aggression or keep peace. All hopes are placed on the development of our consciousness, individually but also in the the institutions.
3. Awareness and consciousness
The positive thing is that this process is linear but affects people, countries and institutions in different phases. This means that many individuals already went through their personal chaos, process of letting go and enlightenment through the development of their consciousness. The growing amount of people with deep insight but also the cultural creatives that have views of the unsustainable situation of today, become representative of early experiments around creating a new type of society.
At this stage still it all depends on individuals, even people with a position in the established industries and governments who are standing up showing personal leadership in this complex situation. For quite some time new initiatives in the field of sustainable progress were crushed by the fearless and ruthless greedy systems of power in their attempt to keep their positions. This may still occur but more and more often we see the opposition grow using totally new instruments to organize the basics of a new society.
Most people and institutions do not want chaos, the threat of (civil) war or struggles around resources and gain insight rapidly. Businesses are repositioning themselves to serve a system by not producing products but sustainable results, involving many more people that strictly possible with the financial means they have. They start building on new value systems that are being developed together with the people who contribute to progress (instead of going to work. National governments loose control and need to allow local and regional governance to facilitate local for local recovery based on local self sufficiency and creation of local values.
What will happen with Europe? From an ideological point of view the concept of Europe was excellent but wrongly focused on financials and not on human progress. The financial Europe will necessarily collapse but the unity of Europe will eventually find some continuity in its own human consciousness of the need to develop global unity, not territorial fragmentation. This sustainable progress aspect of glocalization, local for local for global in a network of relations between self sufficient communities, can start in a new Europe.
The Euro will not be necessary in a world based on abundance of human talent and energy instead of the scarcity inherent to economics of growth. The development of content societies will create totally different needs and isolate the speculative systems that our now still powerfully in place. They are already under pressure living through their own shake out while respect and recognition for money itself and systems representing it, is rapidly deteriorating.
The revolution of the conscience will infect the entire global population as the pain of the old systems hits all people and the institutions. There will be large communities that may even not survive and the global human population will be reduced in the process. How much is difficult to say because it will also depend on the power of the grouping of the enlightened and the level of opposition or support received from the old establishments of remaining power and greed.
The revolution of the consciousness represents a new phase in human evolution and will go into our history as a decisive relatively short period of dramatic suffering, a collapse and recovery, but with a totally new elan of human continuity, respecting our species, its vulnerability, its relation with our natural environment and our evolutionary perspective.
In the end the revolution is the best thing that can happen to humankind but the suffering that will spread through the systems, societies and civilizations caused by the darkest side of human mentality, will be unprecedented in history too. There will hardly be any war but the conversion from total global financial dependencies to independence and self sufficiency is so intense that we will face important periods of structural shortages causing local panic, problems and signs of leadership and the lack thereof.
The long term peace that follows everything will not only be needed but will be secured by all involved to avoid new processes that have lead to the point of singularity and collapse. The global conscience will have made a giant leap that will not easily fall back in old human misbehavior. It will become the basis of a totally new phase in human progress.
And all this will happen in just a few decades and will be seen happening by most people that are alive today. The sooner one develops his or her own consciousness the sooner one can act accordingly.
A systems perspective is essential to understanding sustainability. The system is envisioned in its broadest sense, from the individual farm, to the local ecosystem, and to communities affected by this farming system both locally and globally. An emphasis on the system allows a larger and more thorough view of the consequences of farming practices on both human communities and the environment. A systems approach gives us the tools to explore the interconnections between farming and other aspects of our environment.